Byline: Bill Visnic
Between a rock and a hard place likely will be the feeling for many dealers in the '06 model year.
The titanic pressure of continued downward pricing in almost all market segments - but particularly for entry- and middle-market vehicles - will be joined by the new wild card of consumer jitters over bruising fuel costs.
Until the new model year is well under way, whether these twin factors force a meaningful shift in what sells and what doesn't is a matter for conjecture.
As always, our annual guide to what to buy and what to avoid is based solely on our judgment of the product. And that analysis, of course, remains as infallible as ever.
The Domestics
We'd like to say there's a landslide of new product heading for your domestic stores, but the Chrysler Group, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. bring to market a comparative handful of the four dozen or so truly new vehicles for the '06 model year.
a* At Ford, the eggs essentially are in one basket, with the name "Fusion" on the side. Fusion is the much-needed warrior in the battle with the midsize imports from Honda (Accord), Toyota (Camry) and Nissan (Altima) that over the years have slurped up the market share the domestics have frittered away.
We mainly like Fusion - and its Mercury Milan and Lincoln Zephyr variants - but the front-end styling appears forced. And the engine lineup - a decent 2.3L DOHC 4-cyl. and Ford's long-overdue-for-the-smelter Duratec 3L DOHC V-6 - are no better than marginally competitive.
Moreover, Fusion and its Mercury and Lincoln cousins are based on the Mazda6 platform, which always has been good but isn't exactly the newest on the block. That quibble is equalized by what appear to be high-quality interiors and solid packaging.
OUR CALL: Fusion won't be a loser, but it's not going to change your life either.
Meanwhile, Mustang appears to be still gaining momentum (order all the new, GT-mimicing V-6 "Pony" packages you can get) and F-150 now offers the Harley-Davidson edition for those customers who can't shove enough money in your hand. The Five Hundred/Freestyle duo already is as dead as they appear on the road.
a* GM, true to its heritage for awful timing, is gearing up a plethora of high-powered Chevrolet SS models - just in time for the gas-price jitters.
Nonetheless, the Cobalt SS is a tasty morsel we think will be gobbled by the more well-to-do slackers in the neighborhood, so pile on the orders. And the storming Trailblazer SS, with no less than 395-hp 6L V-8, may just get many a NASCAR dad to crack open the wallet.
But Chevy's big push is on three models: The painfully derivative HHR, a Chrysler PT Cruiser retro-clone that might have made sense five years ago; the Corvette Z06, whose 505-hp 7L small-block V-8 doles out Ferrari-whuppin' performance at a middle-America price; and the Impala, wearing new sheet metal that finally looks like it at least would be at home sometime in the '90s.
OUR CALL: HHR's 15 minutes of fame were over before it launched, but the zone's going to force you to take them. So grin, bear it and use HHR as the ultimate "neato" loaner car.
Corvette - particularly Z06 - will be as automatic as a sell gets, so fear not the order book.
Impala will be strong, strong, strong, even if its revised engine lineup still says "lame, lame, lame." Sell on the new styling and don't lift the hood.
The feel-good news at Pontiac is the marvelously shaped and magnificently hyped Solstice roadster. If you don't already know that they're all sold and you'd better be getting several of this Mazda MX-5-fighting new roadster, you belong in chicken farming, not the car business.
Folks at Pontiac - and GM product big-cheese Bob Lutz - might think the Grand Prix GTP, stuffed with a 303-hp variant of the small-block V-8, is a profit machine, but trust us: even people who always bought Grand Prix are beginning to understand it's a stupid car, and punishing the front wheels with 300-plus horses doesn't make this behind-the-times sedan any smarter. Order only what you must, and buy the GTP only if your desire is for a car that stays on the lot longer than Jerry Rice stayed in football.
Like Chevy, Cadillac in '06 launches a couple of high-powered gas-suckers. The XLR-V and STS-V go like stink thanks to the supercharged version of the Northstar 4.6L DOHC V-8, but the only stink you'll notice is the smell of these pricey cars rusting on the lot. The standard STS and XLR have hardly set the world aflame. So 469-hp and 443-hp variants, respectively, are the answer to a question nobody in line for $3.25 high-octane gas is asking. Bottom line: whatever the Caddy store moved last year, hope you will do the same this year.
At the Hummer store, you've got the new H3 - just in time for Hummers to look like the worst play on the planet. Hummer was a titanically dumb idea from the start, and the overweight, underpowered H3 isn't enough to change that. If you already invested in that idiotic high-tech Quonset hut in which to exhibit these hopeless Mastodons, you can look at the bright side: In a couple years' time, that big hut is going to make a great-looking quickie oil-change shop.
a* Chrysler's big news is the big Dodge Ram, the light-duty version of which is totally redone for '06. In addition to a tidy update of the signature Ram styling, the vaunted Hemi 5.7L V-8 enjoys the update to the fuel-saving Multi-Displacement System, which along with the great lines, we think will help pry sales from Ford and GM. The Durango SUV also gets the MDS upgrade.
Chrysler's flagging Jeep unit expects big things from the new 7-seat Commander, but don't bite. Commander is a retro-sympathy play that won't rope in many savvy buyers.
OUR CALL: Ram (and Durango) with MDS may be the have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too ticket with gas-cost-conscious customers. Order heavily.
The Asians
a* Toyota now is the big Kahuna in the market, thanks to its continually hyped, expanding hybrid-electric vehicle lineup and continually hyped J.D. Power and Associates scores, but the Kahuna's volcano is largely dormant for '06.
Aside from the surprisingly frisky Avalon large car that launched earlier this year, the biggest impact may come from Toyota's move into V-6 territory with its bellwether RAV-4 compact SUV. The RAV is totally new, but segment innovators Toyota and Honda have until now resisted the move to V-6 power - and indeed, one of these vehicles' primary attractions has been their comparative fuel-thriftiness.
Now, like many other auto makers, Toyota is caught upgrading to more power and more cylinders at just the wrong time. Toyota has been known to miss a few trends, but in this case, any criticism of a "bad call" will be blunted by the fact that the all-new RAV is available with a 2.4L DOHC 4-cyl. as a base engine, so any customers crying foul can be pointed to the base model.
At Toyota's upscale Lexus, though, the Samurai swords are swinging with the totally new IS250/350 sport sedans, which are propelled by what arguably are a couple of the most sophisticated engines in the segment. (See also story on page 9.) The smaller 2.5L DOHC V-6 features direct gasoline injection in addition to all the expected V-6 tech goodies. The larger 2.5L unit has both direct and indirect injection and a meaty 306 hp that nothing in the segment can match. The sharp new IS lineup almost makes up for the rather large misfire Lexus endured with this year's earlier launch of the princely but portly GS midsize sedans that seem to have had little impact in the market.
OUR CALL: The RAV-4 will do markedly better in every region, although we're mystified Toyota didn't go for the home run with a hybrid version. And prepare for some serious foot traffic in the Lexus store, too, because the new IS sport sedans are edging Lexus toward's BMW's sacred hunting ground.
a* Honda's heading for bluer skies, and not just because it recently showed off an interesting prototype small business jet. There's a new Civic this year, and it looks like Honda brass is anxious to amend for the current model line's crushing blandness.
Honda's biggest seller should easily remain so, thanks to a frisky new engine lineup that's more powerful and more efficient. And swoopy styling of the new Civic makes the old one look like something that deserves the blue-hair demographic it regularly attracts. On the mean streets, the almost-cliched "tuner crowd" should be happier with the Si performance version of the Civic, largely due to a gigantic 37-hp juice-jump over the old Civic Si.
OUR CALL: You can probably fit two new Civics in the spot occupied by one weak-sales Ridgeline pickup. Let the boys in Texas have the Ridgeline and double up on Civics. You won't be sorry - particularly if the Saudis don't back off from $3 gas.
