EVANSTON, IL -- "Hydrogen is the most plentiful element in the world, and it's about to rock your world." Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research, development and planning, shared this vision while speaking at Northwestern University here last month. He said, "There is a paradigm shift occurring that will see internal combustion engines, petroleum and mechanical systems give way to fuel cells, hydrogen, and software."

Within the next generation, and very possibly sooner, hydrogen as a fuel source will change the very nature and scope of our lives, let alone the transportation sector. The hydrogen revolution is gaining momentum, there is a wave of change and opportunity coming, and the aftermarket service industry can participate.

No longer the stuff of dreams, Burns said the case for hydrogen is clear. While there are still some hurdles to overcome before hydrogen technology and applications are commonplace, the cooperation of industry, academia and government has been remarkable in accelerating the pace towards establishing the infrastructure to achieve the vision of a hydrogen economy. For the shops and technicians in the aftermarket, the evolution of the hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) automobile is going to bring change, challenge and opportunity.

NO LONGER A PIPEDREAM

While attending the opening of the first hydrogen fueling station in Washington, DC on May 25, 2005, President Bush said, "This country is going to have to use technology to diversify away from hydrocarbons. We're too dependent on foreign sources of energy today, and one way to diversify away from hydrocarbons is to use hydrogen, the byproduct of which will he water and not exhausts which pollute the air. So I'm excited to be part of a technological revolution that's going to change the country.

"It won't happen overnight. It's going to take a fair amount of research and development to make sure hydrogen is attractive and reasonable, and is able to be manufactured at a reasonable price, distributed in a wide way for consumer satisfaction. But it's coining." Hydrogen as a viable fuel and source of energy is no longer just the stuff of space shuttles. With each breath we take, hydrogen is entering everyday life. Around the world, projects and events are announced day after day. Denmark is looking to build the world's first hydrogen powered railway. Iceland intends to use its vast geothermal resources to generate hydrogen to become self-sufficient. Towns in both Canada and Norway are soon to be supported entirely by electricity supplied from HFCs. California is committed to building a hydrogen highway by 2010 and already has several fueling stations built.

Burns outlined the case for hydrogen, identified hurdles and the progress towards them, spoke of GM's intentions, and provided several insights on the impact on technicians and shop owners. Automakers and parts manufacturers are at the cutting edge of research, development and applications that are entering the market today. The aftermarket service industry needs to embrace the surging reality that hydrogen is here, recognize the implications and be prepared with equipment, know-how and skill to be able to service and repair vehicles, whatever their makeup. Maintaining customer relationships and survival hinge on it.

THE CASE FOR HYDROGEN

Hydrogen is everywhere, and it is sustainable. Figure 1 identifies the sources from which hydrogen is harvested either through reforming resources, such as petroleum, coal or biomass, or via generation using wind, sunlight, water, geothermal or nuclear energy.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Burns stated, "Hydrogen is environmentally clean, with pure water being the only emission. New technologies will give us the chance to remove the automobile from the environmental debate."

No one has the hydrogen market cornered. Hydrogen will help put American energy security and independence within reach, according to Burns, who said that 98 percent of the nation's current energy imports are petroleum, and two-thirds of that imported petroleum goes to transportation. Hydrogen, he added, will ease geo-political instability, especially in the face of increasing demand for oil from highly populated emerging nations such as China and India.

Hydrogen will dovetail with resource conservation. Burns said that while petroleum sources, particularly natural gas, are still the most affordable feedstock for sourcing hydrogen today, other technologies will be built that will become more competitive. Also, Burns pointed out that the United States is positioned to reduce dependence on petroleum gradually over time, and could use friendlier natural gas-rich nations, such as Canada, as sources for hydrogen.

One example of new competitive sources would be wind-generated hydrogen. Stanford University researchers Cristina Archer and Mark Z. Jacobson reported in the May edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres and Science that the United States has more than enough sustained and sufficient wind power to meet the nation's total energy needs. Furthermore, if the electricity generated by wind was used to produce hydrogen, the researchers estimate it could be produced for a mean gas equivalent price of $2.16 per U.S. gallon.

SPEED BUMPS AHEAD.

Change doesn't come without a price tag. Burns pointed out that cost, infrastructure (storage, reforming and delivery), regulatory standards and HFC vehicle durability and reliability all present hurdles.

"Hydrogen is 1.3 times more expensive that the gasoline equivalent today. But the gap is narrowing, and increasing world demand for petroleum will squeeze that gap," said Burns.

The White House's Office of the Press Secretary quantified the gap in a fact sheet accompanying President Bush's comments that said: "New technology has contributed to a reduction in the cost of natural gas-based hydrogen production from $5 per gallon in 2003 to $3.60 today."

The transition to hydrogen can piggyback on the existing gasoline distribution system, by using petroleum hydrocarbon reforming processes that are already available. Moving from an oil-based (e.g. natural gas) system to one based on hydrogen cannot happen overnight. It will require a period of time to ease society out of the familiar and comfortable oil-based economy and into the new one based on hydrogen.

Technology that uses the existing oil-based infrastructure (gasoline and gas stations, natural gas and pipelines) to power HFCs will make it easier for consumers to move to the new hydrogen-based technology. It will allow consumers to use a fuel source that is familiar and readily available and, at the same time, become accustomed to an entirely different energy source. Hydrocarbon fuel reforming into hydrogen also allows added time to create a hydrogen infrastructure, using entirely different sources such as wind, sunlight, or water.

According to Burns, the largest challenge to fuel cell commercialization is infrastructure. Production, storage, distribution and delivery systems for supplying fuel will have to change. Government initiatives and cooperation between industries is making this happen.

Burns outlined a network of 11,700 hydrogen fueling stations across America. Residents in the top 100 urban centers in the United States, representing 70 percent of the American population, would be within two miles of a hydrogen station. In addition, the 130,000 miles of interstate highways would have a hydrogen fueling station every 25 miles. He explained, "GM estimates it would cost less than $15 billion to construct this network of hydrogen fueling stations across America. By comparison, if the Alaska Pipeline were built today, the cost would be $25 billion." Hydrogen is doable and more affordable than many think.

Federal and state codes and standards regarding safety, installation and operation are being developed, according to Burns. Making the transition to a hydrogen-based economy needs the teamwork and partnership between government and the major players like the vehicle producers, parts manufacturers, energy firms and academic institutions. Partnerships in various projects, government leadership, incentive programs for both producers and consumers are all needed, and being put into place. Likewise, education for the consumer population and the service industry is needed.